Top Performing Decklists
| Deck | Creator | Record | Best Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dimir Midrange | michele aliazzo | 13-3 | None |
| Mono Black Demons | strongmind | 6-2 | None |
| Esper Pixie | junpei nakamura | 8-4 | None |
| yusuke kanazawa | 6-2 | None | |
| Dimir Midrange | francesco fiorenzoni | 6-2 | None |
| Dimir Midrange | marco cardis | 6-2 | None |
| Dimir Midrange | shintarou yoshida | 6-6 | None |
Performance Stats (Last 14 Days)
Win Rate Impact
Top Table Win Rate
Meta Trend
Sample Size
Tournament Results
Average Copies
Archetypes Using This Card:
Abzan Beanstalk , Abzan Midrange , Abzan Pixie , Abzan Roots , Dimir Control , Dimir Midrange , Esper Pixie , Golgari Demons , Golgari Midrange
Meta Performance Analysis
Hero's Downfall ranks #2911 out of approximately 5129 cards in raw efficiency (top 57%).
Game Impact Factor
Color Differential
Black average: 49.9%
Performance compared to other Black cardsBased on our comprehensive multi-metric analysis, Hero's Downfall is an underperforming card in the current meta.
Recommended number of copies: 1
Win Rate Timeline
Card Efficiency Analysis
Raw Efficiency (Win Rate/Mana)
Relative Efficiency
Performance Efficiency: 4.66 (Win rate × Top 8 rate ÷ Mana value)
At 3 mana, the average win rate in the format is 47.5%. Hero's Downfall has a win rate of 56.9%, making it 20.0% better than other 3-mana cards.
Top Performing Partners
| Card Name | Type | Deck Count | Win Rate | 1st Places |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatal Push | Instant | 5 | 77.5% | 2 |
| Heartless Act | Instant | 5 | 66.1% | 1 |
| Deadly Dispute | Instant | 5 | 65.3% | 1 |
| Ghoulish Procession | Enchantment | 5 | 62.9% | 1 |
| Nissa, Worldwaker | Legendary Planeswalker — Nissa | 6 | 61.3% | 2 |
| The Meathook Massacre | Legendary Enchantment | 8 | 60.9% | 1 |
| Tenacious Underdog | Creature — Human Warrior | 7 | 60.7% | 0 |
| Invoke Despair | Sorcery | 6 | 60.4% | 0 |
| The Celestus | Legendary Artifact | 6 | 60.4% | 1 |
| Dark Ritual | Instant | 5 | 60.0% | 2 |
Card Synergy Analysis
Cards that perform better with Hero's Downfall than they do on average. A positive synergy score indicates stronger performance together.
| Card Name | Type | Mana | Decks | Win Rate Together | Win Rate Apart | Synergy Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Ritual | Instant | 1 | 5 | 73.9% | 57.3% | +16.6% |
| Liliana of the Veil | Legendary Planeswalker — Liliana | 3 | 7 | 66.7% | 55.0% | +11.7% |
| Cut Down | Instant | 1 | 5 | 66.7% | 55.7% | +11.0% |
| Fatal Push | Instant | 1 | 6 | 65.9% | 55.4% | +10.5% |
| The Meathook Massacre | Legendary Enchantment | 2 | 6 | 64.7% | 54.5% | +10.2% |
| Den Protector | Creature — Human Warrior | 2 | 5 | 52.9% | 42.8% | +10.2% |
| Feed the Swarm | Sorcery | 2 | 7 | 68.3% | 58.4% | +9.9% |
| Go for the Throat | Instant | 2 | 7 | 64.3% | 54.7% | +9.6% |
| Silence the Believers | Instant | 4 | 7 | 69.8% | 61.4% | +8.4% |
| Inquisition of Kozilek | Sorcery | 1 | 7 | 64.9% | 56.7% | +8.1% |
Top Archetypes
| Archetype | Deck Count | % of Archetype | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dimir Midrange | 24 | 1.0% | 53.5% |
| Esper Pixie | 20 | 1.1% | 32.5% |
| Abzan Pixie | 9 | 23.1% | 36.6% |
| Mono Black Demons | 6 | 3.1% | 63.4% |
| Orzhov Pixie | 4 | 1.6% | 43.8% |
Statistics Explanation
| Statistic | Description | Formula |
|---|---|---|
| Win Rate Impact | How much this card increases or decreases the win rate of decks that include it, compared to the average deck in the format. | (Win rate of decks with this card) - (Average win rate of all decks) |
| Top Table Win Rate | A weighted win rate that gives more significance to performance in higher tournament placements. First place finishes count for 2x, with diminishing weight down to 8th place. | ∑(wins × placement_weight) / ∑((wins + losses) × placement_weight) |
| Meta Trend | Shows if the card is performing better or worse in the most recent period compared to earlier periods. Positive values indicate improving performance. | (Win rate in recent half of time period) - (Win rate in earlier half of time period) |
| Confidence Factor | A measure of statistical reliability based on sample size. The progress bar indicates how confident we are in the statistics (with larger sample sizes providing higher confidence). | log10(Number of decks + 1) |
| Average Copies | The average number of copies of this card included in decks that use it. | ∑(Copies in each deck) / (Number of decks) |
| Card Synergy Score | Measures how well this card performs with other cards compared to their individual performance. | (Win rate together) - (Average of individual win rates) |
| Raw Efficiency | Win rate points per mana invested. Higher values indicate better returns on mana investment. | (Win rate) / (Mana value) |
| Relative Efficiency | How efficient this card is compared to the average card of the same mana value. | ((Win rate) / (Format average win rate for same mana)) / (Mana value) |
| Performance Efficiency | Combined metric that accounts for win rate, tournament success, and mana investment. | (Win rate × Top 8 placement rate) / (Mana value) |
| Game Impact Factor | A measure of how much this card affects game outcomes, based on win rate adjusted by its deviation from the format average. | Win rate × (1 + (Win rate - Format average) / 100) |
| Color Differential | How this card's win rate compares to the average win rate of other cards of the same color. | Win rate - Average win rate for same color |
All statistics are calculated using tournament data from the selected time period. Sample sizes below 10 decks may not provide statistically significant results.